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The Nobel Committee is scheduled to announce on Friday the recipient of its annual Nobel Peace Prize — perhaps the most revered honor among the Nobel awards. For years, Donald Trump has publicly expressed a desire to be recognized with that honor, and now, after a series of recent diplomatic breakthroughs, support for his candidacy has surged.

While most experts believe the Committee will not select Trump this year — in large part due to the tight timeline between the peace accord announcements and the imminent Nobel decision — the momentum behind his push is growing. A number of political allies, media commentators, and international supporters are actively campaigning to elevate him among a distinguished roster of contenders who each bring their own contributions to global peace and diplomacy.

A Personal Crusade Rooted in Grievance and Aspirational Redemption

At 79, Trump’s quest for the Peace Prize is not purely symbolic — it carries deep emotional and political weight. He often frames it in terms of fairness and legacy, citing the Nobel Committee’s decision to award President Barack Obama the prize so early in his tenure as a stark example of bias and injustice. That decision, according to Trump and his supporters, represented an unfair elevation of one political lineage over another.

Trump, long a polarizing wartime president, has endured sustained criticism over his foreign policy, military interventions, and diplomatic style. He has frequently embraced the role of an embattled figure in the public eye — one who feels chronically maligned by media institutions and political elites. Winning a Nobel Peace Prize, in his own narrative, could rewrite much of that history and grant him a symbolic vindication.

The Israel–Hamas Breakthrough as a Potential Catalyst

Proponents argue that Trump’s recent mediation efforts between Israel and Hamas represent a major turning point — a diplomatic breakthrough of sufficient magnitude to reconsider his candidacy. He has publicly asserted sweeping claims: “We settled seven wars. We’re close to settling an eighth. And I think we’ll end up settling the Russia situation …” he said during a press exchange. “I don’t think anybody in history settled that many. But perhaps they’ll find a reason not to give it to me.”

Trump has also warned that if he is not selected, it would be “a big insult to our country.” But he balances that with a rhetorical posture of humility, telling The Washington Post, “I don’t want it. I want the country to get it,” and insisting he does not wish to politicize the prize — though observers argue that voicing eagerness or expectations too openly can undermine a nominee’s credibility.

The timing of the Nobel deadline may have itself influenced negotiations. Some analysts believe that the looming Friday announcement put implicit pressure on both Israel and Hamas to finalize terms. Col. Doron Hadar, a former Israeli Defense Force commander, suggested that the Nobel schedule “is shaping the timeline … by [Thursday] evening, there will already be a declaration that the sides have reached agreements.” The implication: global optics and reputational stakes may have pushed diplomacy into overdrive.

Adding to the spectacle, the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu even circulated a digitally altered image of Trump wearing the Nobel medal — a visual gesture signaling strong political backing and an attempt to anchor Trump’s brand to the award itself.

Roadblocks and Skepticism: Why Many Doubt the Prize Will Go to Trump

Despite the surge in calls for Trump’s recognition, insiders and Nobel watchers remain cautious. Several structural and historical barriers stand in his path:

1. Timing Issues: The Nobel Committee’s considerations are often based on sustained, verifiable peace efforts over multiple years. Trump’s recent breakthroughs, while headline-grabbing, may be viewed as too recent or too preliminary to reflect durable peace.
2. Independent Mandate: The Norwegian Nobel Committee prides itself on insulating its decisions from political pressure. It traditionally avoids choosing candidates perceived as engaging in overt self-promotion or direct lobbying. Trump’s vocal campaigning for the prize may backfire in that context.
3. Complex Record: While Trump points to conflict resolutions, critics highlight inconsistencies in his broader foreign policy — withdrawals from multilateral institutions, fluctuating alliances, and contradictory strategies that may not align with the Nobel’s vision of international cooperation and disarmament.
4. Precedent of Controversial Laureates: The Nobel Prize has occasionally rewarded controversial figures (e.g. Henry Kissinger), but such decisions have triggered backlash and resignations within the committee itself. The Committee may shy from repeating such contentious moves.
5. Invalid or Forged Nominations: In the past, Trump’s nominees have included submissions deemed invalid or fraudulent. In 2018, the Nobel Committee disclosed that a nomination using a stolen identity had been filed in his name. While the Nobel Committee keeps nomination secrecy for 50 years, the reputation of a candidate can be influenced by the validity and credibility of nominations.

Global and Political Reactions

The push for Trump’s Nobel Prize has attracted international attention. On October 9, Malta’s Foreign Minister publicly announced his nomination of Trump, citing the former president’s role in mediating peace in multiple theaters. Similarly, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has openly expressed support for Trump’s candidacy, even sharing visuals portraying him adorned with the Nobel medal.

At the same time, key leaders are walking careful lines. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, for example, praised Trump’s cease-fire efforts as a positive development, but declined to throw his support behind a Nobel nomination, emphasizing the need for lasting implementation over symbolic gestures. Among experts, skepticism runs deep: many believe Trump’s broader foreign policy moves — especially in Gaza, Ukraine, and institutional withdrawal — conflict with the Nobel’s principles.

The Legacy Question: What Winning or Losing Could Mean

If Trump were to be awarded the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, it would mark one of the most spectacular reputational rehabilitations in modern political history. It would cement a legacy narrative of redemption, framing his presidency as one that moved from division to diplomacy.

Conversely, if the Committee declines, Trump is primed to frame the decision as yet another political slight — reinforcing his narrative of being unfairly targeted and misunderstood. Either outcome carries narrative weight: a win would validate his global role, and a loss could further drive his claims of institutional bias.

Either way, the expectation and drama leading up to Friday’s announcement have already reshaped diplomatic postures, media narratives, and public speculation. The actual winner will be revealed soon, but the ripples of this contest will echo long after the medal is awarded.